The Commish Picks The Divisional Playoff Round

Okay, so last week I got lucky.  Went 3-1, and the one I missed was the highest scoring game in NFL playoff history, and it was the game I admitted could go either way, and would be won by the team who started hot.  I said the Jets D would stop Cincy, I said the Ravens would run/run/run their way over the Pats, and that the Cowboys would dominate the Eagles.  Meh.  Like I said, I got lucky.
 
It’s a new week.  4 new games, and these are a lot harder, in my humble opinion.  We’re down to the 7 or 8 best teams in the league.  Any one of these teams COULD upset the other…making these picks tougher than last week.  But, it’s my job, and these 4 fingers of Maker’s Mark aren’t go to drink themselves, so here we go.
 
4 matchups:
 
Saturday, 4:30pm – Cardinals at Saints
 
Saturday, 8:15pm – Ravens at Colts
 
Sunday, 1:00pm – Cowboys at Vikings
 
Sunday, 4:40pm – Jets at Chargers
 
The first game is intriguing, but I don’t think it’s hard.  Sure, the Cardinals put up 51 points against one of the best defenses in the league, and the WR’s made the defensive player of the year Charles Woodson look as pathetic as Michael Scott at an ethics seminar……(God, that was horrid).   Regardless, Kurt Warner looking like his MVP years with “the greatest show on turf” will bite him in the ass this week against a much weaker defense.  The Saints D was an enigma this year, finishing in the bottom half of nearly all defensive statistics, and yet getting more INTS and more defensive TDs than any other.  For fantasy dorks like you and me, they were one of the best.   I see domination on both sides here.
 
Have any of you seen the “Sports Science” show (or the Youtube of it) where Drew Brees throws a football more accurately from 30 yrds to a target than an Olympic archer?  Redonkulous.  Effing crazy.  Seriously.  The guy hit the nose of the football in the center of the bullseye from 30 yards 11 times IN A ROW!!!  Olympic archers can do that 1 of 2 times.  That team, when healthy, can score on GREAT defenses…much less the Cards.
 
The Cardinals bring one of the most experienced QBs, and Warner is ridiculously accurate from time to time.  Who belives Early Doucet is deserving of all this praise?  Oh sure, somehow he snuck past everyone just like David Tyree, and look where HE IS NOW!!!!!!11   I think Mike Greenberg signed the death warrent this morning with all his praise (reverse-curse wise).  I don’t think the running game is scaring anyone either (but I do think Beanie will be a fantasy stud next year).  The loss of Boldin will hurt in this game.  The Cardinals haven’t beaten a team worth anything since beating the Vikes, and only have 2 real wins this entire year, against the Vikes and the Texans.  5 of the last 6 wins (I’ll give them the Vikes) were against the Seahawks, Rams (twice), Bears, Lions.  Gross.
 
Bottom line, in this one, the young, unbelievably talented, HOME TEAM wins the game.  Go ahead football gods, bring the smote.  I think this one will be UGLY, and the Saints will drub the Cards.
 
The Commish says – Saints over Cardinals 38-24
 
Saturday, 8:15 – Ravens at Colts
 
Ok, I love the Ravens.  I think Ray Rice is sick.  I took 5 Ravens in my post-season playoff pool.  I KNEW they would beat the Pats. 
 
I don’t think they can beat the Colts.  No slight to the Ravens.  Really.  Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, Ray Rice, all studs.  They lost by less than a field goal the last time they matched up, but that was in Baltimore.  I think the kid, Flacco, can and will be very good.  The run/run/run has a chance against the Colts, who’s defense gave up 2000+ rushing yards this year, but I’m just plain confident that the Colts O will get it done.
 
The Colts lost twice this year, and neither time did they play their starters.  Manning threw for an average of 300 yds a game, and 2.5 TDs.  Their run game wasn’t special, but the Colts played smart, and rarely turned the ball over.
 
I see the Colts taking control early, and the lack of explosiveness on the Ravens side causing problems.
 
The Commish says – Colts over Ravens 31-17
 
Sunday, 1:00pm, Cowboys at Vikings
 
Let’s get one thing on the table.  I’m a HUGE Brett Favre fan.  Always liked him, regardless of the jersey on his back.  I know I’ll get my spirits crushed here, and maybe it’s this week.   Joe Thomas wants the Cowboys to win, regardless of his constant “ok, this week, the run ends” articles.  I disagree.  I think this Vikings team has what it takes for a Super Bowl run:  Crushing run-d; All-Pro DEs; veteran (god-like) QB; best RB in the game, despite his fumble-itis; emerging all-pro TE and WRs; and a guy who has been a shut down corner in Antoine Winfield.  The loss of EJ Henderson is a big deal though, and the horseshit play calling from the head-coach cannot be overlooked, however.
 
The Cowboys have a decent RB corps, a very good defense, a good, but streaky QB, and an emerging WR in Miles Austin.  They do have an outstanding TE and are on a sick roll right now.  They have the same weaknesses at coach, and their lead RB has a tweaked knee.   On top of all that, they may have the worst kicker in the league, and are on the road.
 
I won’t mince words.  This is the Vikings game to win or lose.  The Cowboys are merely along for the ride.
 
If you grew up in the 70s and liked the Steelers, the 80s and liked the 49ers, the 90s and liked the Cowboys or the 2000s and liked the Patriots?  Screw you.  You’re so lucky, I hate you.  I rode the 1998 season with Randall Cunningham, Randy Moss, and the rest of the Vikings.  To see a hall of fame kicker miss the “seal the deal” field goal was gut wrenching.  I still half-hate the Vikings.  That said, I’m going to slap fate on the ass and say:
 
The Commish says – Vikings over Cowboys 31-28
 
Sunday, 4:40pm, Jets at Chargers
 
This is the proverbial easy one.  Chargers are going to crush the Jets.  I would be absolutely surprised if we saw anything but.  Sanchez was careful, smart, and relied heavily on his running game to get the job done against the Bengals.  The Bengals hadn’t done anything over the last couple weeks, and it continued.
 
The Chargers have lost 3 games: the Ravens, the Steelers and the Broncos.  Hardly creampuffs.  LT is back, Rivers is sick, Vinny Jax is nearly a top 10 WR, and they still have Gates.  Good lord, if this defense can do anything, they’re going to destroy the Jets……
 
Ok, so if I have anything on the other hand here, I think the Jets have an unbelieveable D.  Revis got screwed by the votes in the defensive MVP vote.  No one apparently watched the games.  We probably won’t see Vincent Jackson get 40 yards receiving….BUT, the Chargers have a LOT of other weapons, and they’ll use them.  I do think Shonn Greene/Thomas Jones are also a fantastic RB duo.
 
The Commish says – Chargers over Jets 28-13
 
Ok, so I’ll go 0-4 this week.  I blame the bottle of red wine BEFORE the Bourbon.

Photo Thanks To: