The Commish Picks – Wildcard Weekend

This weekend, I think we’re going to see 3 very good games, and 1 that won’t be so good.  Wildcard weekend is usually the one weekend where we can see some real upsets in the playoffs, with the 4 best teams in the league licking their respective wounds, getting prepared to defend the home turf next weekend.  I think we’ll see 2 upsets for sure.
 
Saturday, January 9, 2010
 
JETS at BENGALS
 
Saturday gives us the Jets at Bengals at 4:30 est, and I think we’re going to see our first upset of the weekend RIGHT OUT OF THE GATES.  We’ve seen 3 distinct seasons with the Jets so far.  Dominant, horrid, and then dominant.  Last year, Joe Flacco was the first rookie to win a playoff game on the road, and I think Sanchez is going to be #2.  Sure he threw 20+ INTs this year, but 9 of those picks came in 2 miserable games.  In his first 3 starts, Sanchez threw 4 TDs and 2 picks, and rushed for another one as they beat Houston, New England, and Tennessee.  Then, as the Jets lost 6 of their next 7, he threw only 6 TDs, and 14 picks.  Since late November, though, the conservative play calling has helped Sanchez a lot.  His attempts have dropped, the defense has really stepped up again, and the Jets have won 5 of the last 6 going into the playoffs. 
 
On the other hand, the Bengals are in a slide.  Since mid-November, Carson Palmer has had 5 games near 200 yards or below.  Their only wins since beating Pittsburgh on 11/15 have been against Detroit, Cleveland and Kansas City.  This is the same Jets team that thumped Cincy last week, and I’m not sure Cincy has it in them to rebound.   Cedric Benson needs to really light it up this week.  He’s been the rock of the team, giving them steady yardage in all but one of their wins this year.  He sat out against the Jets last week, and no one else could carry the load.  I think the only chance the Bengals have is if Ceddy B can go off for 125 and a couple TDs.  I don’t think it will come, and I think they fall short…
 
The commish sees:  Jets over Bengals 27-20
 
EAGLES AT COWBOYS
 
Our second game Saturday starts at 8pm ET in the new behemoth that Jerry Jones built.  Unlike our first game, I see this one falling in favor of the home team.  The Cowboys at home will be too much for the Eagles.  This isn’t about hype, or about a bandwagon.  This is about a team that does have momentum, and has, if you’ll allow me, 5 quality LOSSES.  I’m talking about losses to 1) San Diego , who is a much better team; 2) Green Bay IN GREEN BAY, and while Green Bay may or may not be a better team, in Lambeau, it’s tough to beat them; 3) at Denver, during their 6 game hot start, when Kyle Orton forgot who the hell he was; 4) to the Giants, in week 2, by 2 points; and 5) again to the Giants, but on the road this time.  Maybe the Giants just have the Cowboys formula.  Miles Austin is remarkably now a pro-bowl caliber WR, both Barber and Felix Jones are healthy, and Romo looks confident.  The D is also playing extremely well, holding the Eagles to zero points last week.  Agreed the game could have been much tighter, but it wasn’t. 
 
On the Eagles side of the coin, I don’t see them getting shutout again.  I also see the D playing better, but not well enough.  Since late November, Romo is averaging a mid 60s completion percentage, with an average passing yardage near 300/game.  Westbrook still isn’t healthy enough to make the same impact he used to, and McCoy hasn’t done what’s necessary.  The wild card’s wild card is DeSean Jackson.  Can he blow up?  Will he return a kick for a TD, or make a big play?  He could, and frankly, probably will.  But I just don’t think it will be enough, and I think Romo finally loses the anchor, for at least one game.  Two of the best TEs this year take the field in this game as well.
 
The commish sees: Cowboys over Eagles 31-24
 
Sunday, January 10, 2010
 
RAVENS AT PATRIOTS
 
Our first Sunday tilt is at 1:00pm EST when the Ravens visit the Patriots in Foxboro.  I think this will be our 2nd upset of the weekend.  The Patriots haven’t been the same this year, but were being held upright by guys like Wes Welker, who was lost for the rest of this season last weekend with the knee injury.  Now, I’d be the first to say that Tom Brady is one of, if not THE best players in the NFL.  And Randy Moss has been one of the best; but without Welker, I think he’s not going to be the same guy.  The run game has been spotty, and the defense seems to be starting to show the patchwork that somehow Belichik has hidden over the years.   I think the Pats are a middle of the road D, and will wear down to the Ravens run/run/run attack.
 
Joe Flacco, as mentioned earlier, can handle the pressure.  He’s no Tom Brady, but when you consider his best offensive weapon is 107 years old (D Mason) I think we could give him a break.  He did throw for 21 TD/12 INTs, and there was only one loss for the Ravens to a team NOT in the playoffs, and that was to Pittsburgh IN PITTSBURGH.  This is a tough team.  The Ravens D was 3rd in the league in total yards against, 5th in the league in both total pass yards against and total rush yards against.  Steady 2nd year RB Ray Rice has over 1300 yrds, and a 5+ YPC.  Add in the experience of Willis McGahee and Todd Heap, and I think you have too much for the Patriots to handle.
 
A tight game, but…
 
The commish sees: Ravens over Patriots 24-21
 
PACKERS AT CARDINALS
 
Probably my favorite matchup of the weekend.  Truly feel the entire game gets decided in the first quarter.  Whoever jumps out and takes the reins wins this one.    The Cards limped in to the playoffs, and that’s never good.  BUT, they did the same thing last year, and were within one lucky catch by Holmes of winning the Super Bowl.  I think the leadership of Warner/Fitzgerald could push this either way.  I don’t much care for their run game, and Boldin being hurt doesn’t help.  The defense stunk last week, and they need to back in the game. 
 
In the Packer camp, I think they possess one of the best young QBs out there, talent wise.  Aaron Rodgers is indeed a great replacement for Favre, and will help GB get a lot of wins over the next 5-6 years.  Ryan Grant seems to be back; maybe it just took signing Ahman Green to get him off the dime.  Donald Driver seems ageless, and now holds the franchise records for receptions, and he’s not the most talented WR.  Greg Jennings hasn’t had the year most expected, but he’s still a deep threat.  This defense was the best in the league for total yardage allowed, and they haven’t let up yet.
 
I can’t call this one easily, but it feels like a repeat of last week.
 
The commish says: Packers over Cardinals 34-17
 
Well, I called for 3 upsets out of 4.  Turns out I lied when I started writing this article…it may be the Bourbon, but I’ll stand by what flew through my fingertips.
 
See you next week

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